Wednesday, November 27, 2019

Stats: Which countries have produced the most biased pitches in recent times?

In the last 4 years:

Comparison of spinner vs. seamer statistics of home and visiting bowlers in each country since the beginning of 2016:

Host Country Spin Bowling Avg. Spin Avg. Wkts/Match Spin SR Seam Bowling Avg. Seam Avg. Wkts/Match Seam SR Spin - Seam Bowling Avg. Spin - Seam Avg Wkts/Match
in India 34.5 17.35 65.7 32.47 12.27 61.3 2.03 5.08
in Sri Lanka 29.73 25.06 55.2 34.13 9 61.7 -4.4 16.06
in Bangladesh 25.82 28.82 50.1 31 6.36 64 -5.18 22.46
in U.A.E. 29.32 20.3 62.4 32.03 13.8 70.2 -2.71 6.5
in England 35.41 7.22 63.4 26.43 26.78 50.5 8.98 -19.56
in West Indies 34.07 9.47 66.6 22.46 22.35 49.4 11.61 -12.88
in Australia 48.54 7.05 92.5 30.06 22.05 60.2 18.48 -15
in South Africa 43.59 4.78 75.1 25.25 27.3 47.1 18.34 -22.52
in Zimbabwe 33.37 17.33 65.1 39.04 13.67 81.8 -5.67 3.66
in New Zealand 44.7 4.94 82.6 32.46 24.78 61 12.24 -19.84​

Here are the bar graphs for bowling averages and average wickets per match involving home and visiting bowlers.

To control for the large variability in quality and familiarity with conditions of visiting bowlers, I also looked at how the home teams' bowlers fare in their respective countries. Surely each home bowler is most adjusted to his home conditions so any discrepancies between home seamers and spinners should point to bias in what sort of bowling the pitch/conditions support.

Comparison of spinner vs. seamer statistics of home bowlers only in each country since the beginning of 2016:

Host Country Spin Bowling Avg Spin Avg. Wkts/Match Spin SR Seam Bowling Avg. Seam Avg. Wkts/Match Seam SR Spin - Seam Bowling Avg. Difference Spin - Seam Avg Wkts/Match
in India 25.37 11.21 56 23.88 7.38 47.5 1.49 3.83
in Sri Lanka 28.38 13.94 52.2 46.7 2.56 74.9 -18.32 11.38
in Bangladesh 24.27 16.36 48.9 51.53 1.36 95.9 -27.26 15
in England 32.49 3.44 53 23.96 14.33 48 8.53 -10.89
in Australia 38.07 4.11 78.2 26.72 12.53 54.5 11.35 -8.42
in West Indies 41.51 3.41 79.2 22.76 12.06 48.4 18.75 -8.65
in South Africa 34.11 2.26 59.4 20.16 15.31 37.8 13.95 -13.05
in Zimbabwe 48.17 6.83 86.1 53.71 5.33 103.6 -5.54 1.5
in New Zealand 45.56 1.39 102.5 27.07 15.78 53.4 18.49 -14.39​

Here are the bar graphs for bowling averages and average wickets per match involving home bowlers only.

Some observations:

  1. When looking at bowling averages, the seam and spin difference for all bowlers is minuscule in Asian countries, ranging from about 2 runs in India to about 5 runs in Bangladesh. This is not that surprising considering in UAE there's reverse swing and some seam movement that the likes of Abbas and even Broad and Anderson have utilized well; in SL, plenty of seamers have excelled (Starc, Shami, Boult, Rabada, etc.); even in India, good seamers like Shami, Ishant, Umesh, Bhuvi, Hazelwood, Stokes, Abbott, and Holder have all had 5-fors in recent times. On the other hand, outside of India, the disparity between seam and spin is nothing short of staggering: from a difference of about 9 runs in England to about 18 runs in Aus and SA!

  2. When looking at home bowling averages only, India again have the most balanced numbers (23.88 for pace vs. 25.37 for spin). Spin ends up dominating markedly in BD and SL due to their lack of good seamers. The disparities between seam and spin still remain in SENA + WI, from about a 9-run difference in Eng to almost 19 runs in WI!

  3. However, the marginalization of spinners in SENA + WI is most highlighted by the sheer differences in the number of wickets seamers and spinners contribute on average per match across both sides. In a typical match in SA, seamers contribute 27 wickets while spinners do 5! In Aus, Eng, NZ, and WI, seamers contribute between 13 to about 20 wickets more than spinners! On the other hand, in SL and BD, spinners dominate, contributing 16 and 22 more wickets, respectively. India, however, have (alongside Zim) the smallest difference in contributions from seam and spin: spinners contribute only 5 more wickets than seamers on average.

  4. India (and especially Asian countries) are often accused of tailoring their pitches to their bowling strengths, and there certainly are some isolated instances that deserve to be condemned like Nagpur 2015 and Pune 2017. But on the whole it seems like Indian pitches (alongside those in Zimbabwe) are actually the most balanced between seam and pace. In fact, pace bowling is more effective than spin bowling on Indian pitches across the last 4 years!

Edit: the last 2 columns in each table represent the differences between the spin and seam stats.

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