The upcoming NZ/AUS series is probably the most excited I've been for a series in Australia maybe since SA came in and beat Australia a few years back. India last year would have been close but even though Australia hung in there and it was generally a very good series, that was a team rebuilding its morale and lacking in Smith and home Warner post-sandpaper.
I think the most intriguing thing to me is whether the NZ bowlers will have success on Australian tracks which are actually quite batting friendly especially once teams adapt to the bounce.
A lot of people bring up the stats about visiting spinners struggling with Australian conditions, but apart from Bumrah and to a lesser extent Shami and Ishant last year, and SA's GOAT attack its not often a happy hunting ground for visiting fast bowlers either. While they are more effective than their spinning compatriots, the decks do not offer nearly any sideways movement except for the odd bit of seam off cracks if there are any and some swing with the new ball. The kookaburra being generally a bit shit probably doesn't help things. Hobart is probably the only venue where the slower bowlers that rely on movement have consistent success these days and it might not be a surprise considering NZ's last test win was here (on Trento's Debut with one of the greenest pitches I've ever seen in Aus) and it doesn't seem like the home of the accurate medium pace bowler will get a test any time soon.
Boult and Southee aren't express and while they are both quality Test bowlers- are by no means just run of the mill dobbers- they will be helped a lot by swing and seam, and if they don't get much with the new ball it might be tough for them. Southee has averaged 50 in Aus compared with 30 for his career for e.g. That said if they can get the new ball moving and with Boult being left-handed and Southee having a lot of Broad like qualities, they may be a different proposition for Warner who has been unstoppable against Pakistan.
I actually think Neil Wagner is the kind of bowler who will do really well in Australia, he might not be express but he kind of bowls like he is. Runs in all day super hard and doesn't really give a shit about the conditions, just puts it in awkward areas and doesn't back down. He actually reminds me a little bit of a left arm slower Pat Cummins, both are elite back of a length bowlers and have great attitudes. If you like Japanese wrestling he's Tomohiro Ishii, a small man who wrestles like a big man and is built like a fridge, and will clothesline you to death and try and suplex you even though he's 3/4 of your size he is fucking awesome .
There has been a lot of talk about Lockie Ferguson's pace being a key to unlock some of these decks and challenge Australia's batting- although untested as yet in Tests. That average of about 24 in FC and a tick above that in ODI, with a strong temperament would seem to say that he'll be effective if he plays, and that extra pace does seem to be a key to being challenging on Aus decks (see Bumrah, Starc, Cummins, England struggling). That would mean that they would have to drop one of their main men (a hard drop on anyone), go with 4 quicks or maybe go without DeGrandhomme and put Santner up the order which would be tough as he has been in ripping form, and Santner, whilst a good batter is not as consistent as CdG. DeGrandhomme is a interesting bowling proposition in his own way, his bowling ave is sneaky awesome and one wonders how he will go with his medium pace, but I think at times will actually be very effective nagging away.
The Pitches
Sydney seems to have the rep of being the most turn friendly wicket in Aus and if it does turn, Santner, who I think is an awesome all-round cricketer but possibly not the most attacking bowler at test level (although some of his variations are fun) will be crucial, a second spinner for NZ might be asking a bit much to leave out any of their quicks. And with that said, I don't necessarily think that's actually how Sydney plays much anymore and generally is just good for batting. Last year most of the test at the SCG was rained out after India made 600 in the first innings, maybe not a ringing endorsement of the wicket and the Ashes the year previous a weary England got smoked.
The MCG is the MCG who knows if it will be decent this year, I actually don't hate variable bounce as a feature of a pitch, alhtough it makes for some unavoidable dismissals at times and that seems to be the main challenge of batting on the MCG wicket. I would love it if the curator got ballsy one year and made it a raging green top which would probably just make Melbourne a normal wicket, and although I don't think they'll do it because they might see that as favouring NZ it would be a lot more entertaining.
Perth put out a great pitch last year in its first outing into Tests, but I think the conditions of D/N tests make these actually a lot more about when teams are bowling or batting, rather than the actual make up of the pitch- I think this test will be where Southee and Boult are genuinely awesome especially if they can get a new ball around that twilight period, Boult did take 7 wickets and almost bowled NZ to victory last time these two teams met in a day nighter in Adelaide.
Thought it would be interesting to discuss how you think they will go? I really think the pitches might nullify some of their effectiveness but I think the additions of Wagner and Ferguson since the last time they played will be huge.
Apologies for the wall of text.
Edit:will edit grammar probably
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