When I posted my comparison of England spin bowlers, I asserted that Jack Leach was England's best spin bowler at the moment and that Moeen Ali should be nowhere near the Test team as a specialist spinner. Having looked at the responses which people gave, I stand by my first statement, but a couple of comments made me reconsider my second statement. In particular, the argument was made that despite Moeen's career bowling stats not being particularly impressive, his recent form prior to being dropped was fantastic. I feel that perhaps I didn't give Moeen a fair shot the first time around, so in this post, I'll be taking a deep dive to analyse his true abilities as a spin bowler.
Firstly, I am once again going to present Mo's career bowling stats, but with a couple of additions: His domestic first-class figures and his strike rate and economy rate.
| First-class matches | Domestic first-class matches | Test matches | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bowling average | 37.94 | 39.26 | 36.59 |
| Wickets per match (WPM) | 1.90 | 1.40 | 3.02 |
| Strike rate | 64.4 | 68.07 | 60.6 |
| Economy rate | 3.53 | 3.46 | 3.62 |
As mentioned in my post comparing England spinners, Moeen's WPM is much higher for Tests than in domestic FC, and this is most likely due to the fact that he was, from what I can tell, a part-timer at county level before he was selected for England as their frontline spinner (he bowled only two overs in his debut for Warwickshire). His other Test statistics are better than his domestic statistics with the exception of economy rate.
From the face of it, it would seem to be obvious that Moeen is not good enough to be England's frontline spin bowler, but perhaps these figures do not tell the whole story. For one thing, the expectations of spin bowlers in SENA (South Africa, England, New Zealand and Australia) and in the subcontinent (India, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh) are different, so let's consider his figures in England, in SENA countries as a whole and in subcontinental countries as a whole.
| England | SENA | Subcontinent | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Number of innings | 57 | 72 | 18 |
| Bowling average | 32.47 | 38.07 | 34.41 |
| WPM | 3.06 | 2.69 | 3.90 |
| Strike rate | 51.0 | 62.7 | 59.5 |
| Economy rate | 3.81 | 3.64 | 3.46 |
As expected, Moeen does significantly better in the subcontinent than in SENA countries, even accounting for his performances in English conditions. However, what I want to know is how well he does compared to other spin bowlers this generation, so here are the aggregate figures for all spin bowlers from the 12th of June 2014 (when Moeen Ali first made his Test debut) to now (excluding Mo himself, of course):
| England | SENA | Subcontinent | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bowling average | 38.22 | 43.01 | 29.80 |
| Strike rate | 71.32 | 78.12 | 57.27 |
| Economy rate | 3.22 | 3.30 | 3.12 |
Now this is interesting. When I first looked at Ali's figures in the SENA countries, I was left unimpressed by them, but as this table shows, spin bowlers in general have struggled in those conditions since mid-2014. Anyway, there were two recurring themes in the comments on my comparison post:
- Moeen Ali is more of an attacking spinner than a defensive spinner (Leach and Bess being examples of the latter)
- Moeen should be taken to the subcontinent but not to SENA countries
The first claim is certainly true in the sense that Mo has a worse economy rate than the average spin bowler in all conditions. However, crucially, his bowling average and strike rate (the two statistics which depend on wickets) are both above average in England and in SENA countries in general, whereas he is below average in all the key statistics in the subcontinent. If anything, based on these stats, there is a stronger case for playing him in SENA conditions than there is for playing him in the subcontinent, at least as an attacking spinner (although I should make it clear that this is without comparing him to other England spin bowlers).
That being said, none of these figures are enough to convince me yet that Moeen deserves another shot in the Test team despite the fact that he performs better in SENA conditions than I initially gave him credit for. He can certainly take wickets, but he also leaks far too many runs (an economy rate of 3.81 in England is unacceptable for a spinner in my opinion) and as a result, I can't help but feel that throughout his England Test career, he has been more of a liability with the ball than an asset.
However, all hope is not yet lost. Remember when I said that the argument that Moeen's recent form has been fantastic was what originally inspired me to make this post? Well, let's test out that hypothesis. I reckon two years, three years and five years are sensible bands to consider in our analysis, and because away sample sizes will inevitably be smaller, I will (perhaps unwisely) be lumping in away statistics together. Firstly, here are his home figures:
| Past 2 years | Past 3 years | Past 5 years | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bowling average | 27.37 | 34.27 | 29.98 |
| WPM | 4.00 | 3.00 | 3.28 |
| Strike rate | 45.8 | 59.1 | 48.1 |
| Economy rate | 3.58 | 3.47 | 3.73 |
And here are his away figures:
| Past 2 years | Past 3 years | Past 5 years | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bowling average | 24.21 | 38.08 | 41.98 |
| WPM | 5.33 | 3.08 | 2.96 |
| Strike rate | 40.6 | 65.4 | 72.8 |
| Economy rate | 3.57 | 3.49 | 3.45 |
Finally, here are the aggregates for all spin bowlers bar Moeen himself:
| Past 2 years | Past 3 years | Past 5 years | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bowling average | 35.23 | 34.12 | 33.58 |
| Strike rate | 66.62 | 65.23 | 64.07 |
| Economy rate | 3.17 | 3.14 | 3.14 |
Some observations:
- For the past five years, Mo has been above average at home (except for his economy rate) but pretty poor away
- Between two and three years ago, Moeen went through a dreadful run of form both at home and away; this may in part contribute to the perception that Mo blows hot and cold when it comes to consistency
- The key numbers here, however, are his figures in the past two years
- While his economy rate has always been subpar, Ali's performances in the past two years (especially when compared with his peers) have been worthy of England's frontline spinner, in my view
- Mo has been on two away tours in the past two years (Sri Lanka and the West Indies) and he was absolutely sublime with the ball in both those tours
- His home performances in the past two years have also been very good
Now I see why so many England fans are so keen to give Moeen another chance. At first, I couldn't grasp it; surely, England can do better than a #3 batsman who bowls a bit? In a way, though, that makes his recent form more impressive; the story of Moeen Ali is the story of a batsman who was selected as a frontline spinner and who has worked at his game until he has reached the point where he is bowling better than most specialist spin bowlers.
To be clear, I still think that Jack Leach is England's best spin option right now, especially when we need to hold an end, but I came into this analysis with an open mind and I have to admit that I was wrong about Moeen. I took one look at his career figures and assumed that he was mediocre, and for much of his career he was (especially overseas), but diving deeper, I realise now that his recent form before being dropped was actually pretty remarkable, and although his record outside England and the subcontinent isn't stellar by any means, other spin bowlers have struggled in the same conditions.
It's a shame that his confidence was wrecked in the Ashes given his impressive form going into the series; whether the World Cup played a role in that, I do not know. What I do know is that Mo is the type of player who needs an encouraging hand to maintain his confidence, and the fact that England seemingly gave up on him so quickly following his struggles in the first Ashes test, combined with an odd tendency from some England fans to make him into a scapegoat for poor team performances, is a shame in my opinion.
Am I saying that Moeen Ali is an ATG spin bowler? Of course not. Am I saying that he's England's best spin bowler? No, not in my view. However, what I am saying is that he is a better spin bowler than I think a lot of people (including myself) give him credit for, and although I said previously that he shouldn't be anywhere near the Test team, I now retract that statement and would be more than happy to see him being given another chance to prove himself in the Test arena, at least in England and the subcontinent (although I personally would not take him to Australia, New Zealand or South Africa).
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