Introduction
England is, as of the writing of this post, the #1 ranked ODI side in the world and the current ODI world champions. This has often been attributed to our world-class batting lineup which has emerged since Trevor Bayliss was appointed head coach back in 2015, and a cursory look at the ICC player rankings shows the talent at display: From England's top six at the World Cup, Jason Roy is ranked #14, Jonny Bairstow is #13, Joe Root is #9, Eoin Morgan is #22, Ben Stokes is #23 and Jos Buttler is #20.
However, our superb batting lineup has arguably distracted from our bowling lineup, and I rarely see England's ODI bowlers being discussed when it comes to evaluating our strengths and weaknesses even though they are just as important for any good side as the batsmen. Eight players bowled at least one ball for England at the World Cup: Moeen Ali, Jofra Archer, Liam Plunkett, Adil Rashid, Joe Root, Ben Stokes, Chris Woakes and Mark Wood; Tom Curran and Liam Dawson were also in the squad but didn't play.
Looking at the ICC ODI rankings for England bowlers, however, shows a more inconsistent picture. Woakes leads the pack at #7, making him one of the best ODI bowlers in the world at the minute, but then there's a small gap before one reaches a cluster of bowlers starting with Wood at #24, before moving on to Rashid at #25, Plunkett at #28 and Archer at #29. Moeen is all the way down at #45, David Willey (who was replaced by Archer for the World Cup) is at #51, Stokes is at #73 and Curran is at #93. Root and Dawson aren't even in the top 100, but the former is a part-timer and the latter has only played in three ODIs so far, so they can be forgiven for that.
As you can see, our bowling attack isn't bad by any means (otherwise, we wouldn't have been doing nearly as well as we have been for the past five years) but it's not quite to the same level as our batting relatively speaking. Let us see, then, which bowlers have been pulling their weight for these last five years and which bowlers have been liabilities.
The World Cup
First, though, let's look at the 2019 World Cup and how our eight bowlers performed, as that was the last major ODI tournament. Here are the aggregate stats for all non-English bowlers at the 2019 World Cup:
| Bowling average | Strike rate | Economy rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pace bowlers | 30.82 | 32.8 | 5.63 |
| Spin bowlers | 51.96 | 57.8 | 5.39 |
As you can see, spin bowlers were somewhat more economical than pace bowlers at the World Cup, but otherwise struggled quite significantly. Bear this in mind when I show you the stats for England's bowlers at the World Cup:
| Overs per match (OPM) | Wickets per match (WPM) | Bowling average | Strike rate | Economy rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moeen Ali | 8.60 | 1.00 | 46.00 | 51.6 | 5.34 |
| Jofra Archer | 9.17 | 1.82 | 23.05 | 30.2 | 4.57 |
| Liam Plunkett | 8.00 | 1.57 | 24.72 | 30.5 | 4.85 |
| Adil Rashid | 8.36 | 1.00 | 47.81 | 50.1 | 5.71 |
| Joe Root | 0.91 | 0.18 | 27.50 | 30.0 | 5.50 |
| Ben Stokes | 4.62 | 0.64 | 35.14 | 43.5 | 4.83 |
| Chris Woakes | 7.73 | 1.45 | 27.87 | 31.8 | 5.24 |
| Mark Wood | 8.97 | 1.80 | 25.72 | 29.8 | 5.16 |
What can we conclude from these stats? Well:
- All of England's frontline pacers outperformed the average World Cup pace bowler on every metric; it should not be surprising, of course, that the champions would have a better-than-average pace attack in a pace-dominated World Cup
- With that being said, Jofra had an incredible campaign even when compared to his England peers, outperforming them on every metric except for strike rate (even then, he was a close second among pace bowlers); with all the recent discussion of his Test form, it's easy to forget at times why England was so desperate to get him into the ODI team in the first place
- Moeen did alright considering how difficult the World Cup was for spin bowlers, but Rashid leaked more runs than the average spin bowler
- England's most effective spin bowler at the tournament was Joe Root(!)
- Stokes wasn't trusted as a frontline bowler but he was very economical when he did bowl; however, he didn't do a particularly fantastic job taking wickets
What does this mean, then? Do we just keep the same pace attack and drop the spinners? No, of course not. For one, there are other pace bowlers available who may have done better (Willey is probably who most England fans would think of in this respect) and in any case, one tournament is not enough to judge the past five years. Let's take a deeper dive, then, into that particular set of stats.
The Bayliss Era
Trevor Bayliss was appointed as England head coach on the 26th of May 2015, so I want to see who England's best ODI bowlers were since then. Before I begin, I want to look at the aggregate stats for all non-English ODI bowlers since Bayliss' arrival:
| Bowling average | Strike rate | Economy rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pace bowlers | 32.57 | 35.8 | 5.45 |
| Spin bowlers | 35.35 | 42.9 | 4.93 |
I now want to compare England bowlers in ODIs since Bayliss' appointment, but obviously, I'm going to need some sort of minimum qualification; otherwise, there would simply be too many bowlers, some of whom only played a couple of matches and some of whom aren't even bowlers or all-rounders. I have decided (somewhat arbitrarily) to impose a cutoff of five wickets between then and now (sorry, Vince), which still leaves me with fifteen bowlers to wade through. Note: I am only considering statistics since the 26th of May 2015, not overall career statistics.
| OPM | WPM | Bowling average | Strike rate | Economy rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moeen Ali | 7.68 | 0.77 | 53.29 | 59.7 | 5.34 |
| Jofra Archer | 8.77 | 1.64 | 24.73 | 32.0 | 4.63 |
| Jake Ball | 8.77 | 1.17 | 46.66 | 45.0 | 6.20 |
| Tom Curran | 7.36 | 1.27 | 35.64 | 34.7 | 6.16 |
| Steven Finn | 8.75 | 1.33 | 36.18 | 39.3 | 5.51 |
| Chris Jordan | 6.61 | 0.67 | 68.25 | 59.5 | 6.88 |
| Saqib Mahmood | 8.21 | 1.25 | 31.20 | 39.4 | 4.75 |
| Liam Plunkett | 7.71 | 1.60 | 28.01 | 28.8 | 5.81 |
| Adil Rashid | 8.40 | 1.53 | 30.59 | 33.0 | 5.55 |
| Joe Root | 1.31 | 0.13 | 57.83 | 60.3 | 5.75 |
| Ben Stokes | 5.22 | 0.70 | 44.14 | 44.4 | 5.95 |
| Reece Topley | 7.83 | 1.55 | 25.94 | 30.4 | 5.11 |
| David Willey | 7.36 | 1.23 | 34.23 | 35.9 | 5.71 |
| Chris Woakes | 7.70 | 1.43 | 28.89 | 32.2 | 5.37 |
| Mark Wood | 8.52 | 1.20 | 39.33 | 42.5 | 5.54 |
I am now going to make observations on each of these bowlers based on their stats since 2015 and the aggregate stats for all bowlers since 2015.
Moeen: His role is supposedly to save runs, yet his economy rate is worse than the average spin bowler. Combine that with his seeming inability to take wickets and it's a surprise that he bowls as much as he does.
Jofra: Arguably England's premier ODI bowler at the moment; if I were a West Indies fan looking at his ODI stats, I'd be fuming. Also, that economy is outrageous for a pacer.
Ball: There's a reason he hasn't played ODIs for England since 2018. He isn't particularly adept at taking wickets and his economy rate is dreadful.
Curran: He's decent enough at taking wickets, but he also leaks a lot of runs doing so.
Finn: A relic of the pre-Bayliss era, he continued to play ODIs until 2017. He wasn't bad by any means, but he was pretty average. In a lesser squad, he might have continued to get a look-in, but he's not a good enough ODI bowler for the #1 ranked team in the world.
Jordan: Has only played twelve ODIs and for good reason. His stats are appalling.
Mahmood: Very small sample size (he's only played four ODIs so far) but looks decent. Very economical so far.
Plunkett: Head and shoulders above his England teammates when it comes to pure wicket-taking ability, which makes up for his poor economy rate. It's a real shame that the Nunthorpe Starc is not in England's ODI plans for the future.
Rashid: Less economical than the average spinner and less economical than Moeen, but he's much better at taking wickets than the average spin bowler. Certainly among the best attacking ODI spinners at the moment.
Root: Used only for the occasional over and it's easy to see why. Has about the same strike rate as Moeen, though, which honestly reflects poorly on the latter.
Stokes: Bowls sporadically and is alright at picking up wickets, but he's also expensive (oddly enough, it was the opposite at the World Cup). Definitely more of a specialist batsman in the ODI side.
Topley: The one who surprised me the most on this list. He's actually a fantastic ODI bowler (second-best strike rate behind Plunkett and third-best economy behind Mahmood and Jof) yet hardly anyone ever mentions him (perhaps due to a lack of consistent game time).
Willey: Quite expensive, but can take wickets. Definitely not as good as Jof though.
Woakes: A class ODI bowler with good all-round stats; the 'jack-of-all-trades' in the England side. No wonder he's #7 in the rankings.
Wood: Despite a stellar World Cup, he's been bang average for the past five years. Alright economy, but struggles to take wickets.
I think this analysis reveals a lot, but there's something missing here.
Domestic Stats
The domestic List A game doesn't seem to have the same reputation, at least in England, as domestic FC and T20 cricket do; the only time I see it mentioned by England fans is when they're discussing the fact that Warwickshire's Sam Hain has the highest List A batting average of all time. However, especially for some of the more inexperienced players, I think it is invaluable to take a look at them. At the very least, it can't hurt, eh?
For this analysis, I'll be using career domestic List A averages to compare the fifteen above bowlers, plus a few extra names who I believe are in contention for selection as bowlers or all-rounders (Pat Brown, Sam Curran, Liam Dawson, Joe Denly, Lewis Gregory, Liam Livingstone, Matt Parkinson and Olly Stone). If I've missed anyone then please feel free to let me know.
| OPM | WPM | Bowling average | Strike rate | Economy rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moeen Ali | 4.43 | 0.64 | 38.44 | 41.5 | 5.56 |
| Jofra Archer | 8.70 | 1.50 | 30.71 | 34.8 | 5.29 |
| Jake Ball | 6.65 | 1.24 | 30.97 | 32.1 | 5.79 |
| Pat Brown | 6.97 | 1.20 | 36.50 | 34.8 | 6.28 |
| Sam Curran | 7.55 | 1.35 | 30.89 | 33.6 | 5.51 |
| Tom Curran | 7.47 | 1.59 | 25.47 | 28.3 | 5.40 |
| Liam Dawson | 6.50 | 1.01 | 30.15 | 38.5 | 4.70 |
| Joe Denly | 1.52 | 0.32 | 23.87 | 28.3 | 5.05 |
| Steven Finn | 7.27 | 1.32 | 28.80 | 33.0 | 5.23 |
| Lewis Gregory | 6.46 | 1.39 | 27.75 | 27.8 | 5.98 |
| Chris Jordan | 7.27 | 1.52 | 26.61 | 28.7 | 5.57 |
| Liam Livingstone | 3.95 | 0.42 | 49.30 | 56.7 | 5.21 |
| Saqib Mahmood | 8.04 | 1.85 | 25.32 | 26.0 | 5.83 |
| Matt Parkinson | 8.68 | 1.68 | 26.55 | 31.0 | 5.14 |
| Liam Plunkett | 6.80 | 1.17 | 30.96 | 34.7 | 5.35 |
| Adil Rashid | 7.23 | 1.24 | 30.77 | 35.0 | 5.27 |
| Joe Root | 2.51 | 0.36 | 35.64 | 41.9 | 5.10 |
| Ben Stokes | 3.93 | 0.90 | 23.23 | 26.2 | 5.33 |
| Olly Stone | 6.60 | 0.88 | 40.26 | 44.7 | 5.40 |
| Reece Topley | 7.76 | 1.71 | 25.40 | 27.2 | 5.60 |
| David Willey | 5.60 | 1.06 | 30.02 | 31.7 | 5.68 |
| Chris Woakes | 6.64 | 0.95 | 38.15 | 41.9 | 5.46 |
| Mark Wood | 6.76 | 1.35 | 24.78 | 30.0 | 4.96 |
For those of you who can be bothered to get through all that, there's some interesting stuff in there. Before I draw any conclusions from this data, there are a couple of things which I need to mention.
Caveats
Firstly, bowlers in ODIs are quite specialised in that they have specific roles with different requirements. With the current powerplay rules, these are often grouped into opening bowlers (overs 1-10), middle-overs bowlers (overs 11-40) and death bowlers (overs 41-50). I really wanted to be able to present statistics broken down by powerplay so that we could get a better picture of the state of England's ODI bowling attack (for instance, is David Willey really an amazing opening bowler and a terrible death bowler?). Unfortunately, I could not find a way to obtain this data from Statsguru, but if anyone else is able to do so then please feel free to present your own analysis.
Secondly, I am assuming in my conclusions that the selectors are only looking at bowling ability when it comes to picking bowlers. In ODIs, however, teams are often willing to sacrifice a certain level of bowling ability if they gain batting ability as a result; in other words, they're more likely to pick a decent slogger who averages 28 with the ball over a bunny who averages 23 with the ball. The players in the above list all vary in terms of their batting ability, but for the purposes of this analysis, I will only be considering how they fare as bowlers even though in reality, bowling is rarely the only factor that is considered.
Conclusions
The first conclusion I would draw from all this data is that unlike with red-ball cricket, domestic one-day cricket in England is a poor predictor for ODI performance. If it were an accurate predictor, we'd expect Tom Curran, Steven Finn, Chris Jordan and Mark Wood to be the best performers in England's bowling attack, yet their ODI records range from unremarkable to abysmal; by contrast, Jofra Archer, Liam Plunkett and Chris Woakes are England's top bowlers despite none of them having particularly fantastic domestic List A records (Woakes' stats in particular are actually quite mediocre).
I do not know if this applies to other countries as well, nor do I know if it applies to batting as well (if it does, I'd be very careful hyping up Sam Hain), nor do I know the reasons behind these numerous disparities, but I feel confident enough to state that when it comes to bowling in England, one should take domestic stats with a pinch of salt. For this reason, I am going to be cautious when discussing bowlers who have little or no ODI experience. Anyway, without further ado, let us move on to my conclusions on all the aforementioned players as ODI bowlers.
Moeen: It is no secret that he's not the best at taking wickets in ODIs. His job is supposedly to hold an end up for Rashid, yet he evidently can't even manage that. Combine this with the fact that he doesn't bowl that much in domestic List A cricket and that his domestic stats (unreliable as they are) are mediocre, and I'm left wondering what he offers to the ODI team (his batting is nothing spectacular either). I genuinely believe that he is the weak link in England's bowling lineup and that we should move him on and look for better candidates.
Jofra: I don't care what his domestic stats say; this man is a real talent. Right now, he is England's best ODI bowler in my view, and given his young age, he has the potential to go down as an all-time England great in ODIs if he continues his excellent form. As far as bowlers go, Jof's the first name on the team sheet as far as I'm concerned.
Ball: He's had his chance and failed. Personally, I have no interest in giving him another opportunity.
Brown: He's talked about as a talented pace bowler, yet he's played only ten List A games and his stats are poor. However, I haven't seen him play myself, and as already mentioned, domestic stats in England aren't good predictors for ODI bowling performance, so if he really is that talented then he deserves a shot.
S. Curran: His domestic stats aren't impressive and his ODI performances haven't been great so far. Maybe he'll come good, but I'm not confident.
T. Curran: I can certainly see why England have so much faith in him given his impressive domestic List A figures. However, I feel as if his ODI performances have been subpar, and I'm too sceptical of domestic one-day stats to give him a long leach based on those alone. Maybe he will be a great bowler one day, but he'll have to improve quickly in my eyes. In particular, he needs to work on leaking fewer runs.
Dawson: Based on his county stats, he could potentially replace Moeen as England's holding spinner given his fantastic economy rate. However, although he's only played in three ODIs so far, he's been quite expensive at international level. He's 30 anyway, so I can see him dropping out of contention within the next five years unless he starts putting in better performances.
Denly: He was bizarrely picked as a bowling all-rounder but to be fair, he's done well domestically on the rare occasions in which he has bowled. That said, in ODIs, he's been far better with the bat than with the ball, and he's 34 anyway, so I don't see his bowling career taking off.
Finn: He's so obviously never going to be picked again that I see no reason to go into any further detail here.
Gregory: He's yet to be capped in ODIs, but he's been in and around the squad. He could perhaps fulfil the Plunkett role if he can transfer his domestic stats to the international arena, but once again, exercise caution around his domestic figures.
Jordan: I know that his domestic List A bowling stats are impressive, but he has frankly been awful in ODIs for the past five years. He's nearly 32 now; I think it's fair to say that he's not the future of England's bowling attack in this format.
Livingstone: I love Livingstone as a Lancs fan, but I hope that England are considering him for his batting and not for his bowling! I swear, if they try to shoehorn him at #9 as a specialist spin bowler then my head is going to explode.
Mahmood: Domestically, the stats speak for themselves. Internationally, he hasn't been nearly as effective at taking wickets as he has been at Lancashire, but he's also been far more economical. In some ways, the difference between his domestic and international stats shows him to be a reverse Plunkett. Then again, he's only played four ODIs, so anything could happen at this stage. Definitely one to keep an eye on
Parkinson: Many view him as the natural heir to Adil Rashid, and looking at his domestic record shows why. He's not had the best start to his ODI career, though, which is slightly concerning. He's still young, however, so he deserves time to prove himself.
Plunkett: It's disgraceful how he's been treated by England since the World Cup. I get that he'll be in his late 30s by the time the 2023 World Cup rolls around, but you could at least phase him out gradually rather than dropping him without any adequate replacement. He is England's most efficient wicket-taker in ODIs (how his strike rate and economy have been flipped when one compares his domestic record to his international record, I have no idea) and his absence was felt greatly in both South Africa and against Ireland. If he is not recalled or replaced soon then I feel as if we may be in trouble.
Rashid: He's been a great servant to England in ODIs and he's still a class attacking spinner at 32. I can only hope that England gradually replace him with younger bowlers when the time comes rather than drop him suddenly and leave us effectively a bowler down.
Root: He bowls handy part-time spin. That's as much as I have to say on him, apart from the fact that he's apparently a better bowler than Mo is at domestic level.
Stokes: I wonder if his long-term injury is preventing him from bowling more? I personally think that we need his Test bowling more than we need his ODI bowling, so I'm happy for him to be a specialist batsman in one-day cricket if it allows him to continue bowling in Tests.
Stone: His domestic record isn't great and he's struggled in ODIs so far. I'm not sure he's the future, if I'm honest.
Topley: England's most underrated ODI bowler, and the only bowler whose domestic figures actually resemble his international figures somewhat. Seriously, I'm amazed that he goes under the radar given how superb he's been so far. If he's not part of the core squad before the next World Cup then I think that England will have wasted a real talent.
Willey: As harsh as it may seem, he's not on the same level as Jofra Archer. Given his age and the fact that he has some stiff competition, I don't see him making a comeback. Unfortunate, perhaps, but to be honest, he wasn't among England's best one-day bowlers even before Archer arrived.
Woakes: The next World Cup might prove to be his swansong given he'll be around the same age as Plunkett was in the 2019 World Cup. For now, though, he's still one of the first names on the team sheet as far as our bowling attack goes.
Wood: He had a fantastic World Cup, but I'm not sure he's shown the consistent quality required for the #1 ranked ODI team in the world. He'll probably stick around anyway, and others deserve to go before he does, but sooner or later, I think we may have to explore alternative options.
Man, that was a long post! I hope you all enjoyed reading this analysis of England's ODI bowlers even if you ultimately didn't agree with my conclusions. I think England's bowlers go under the radar a bit compared to the batsmen and so I hope this has at least been informative. Also, if you think I've missed any England bowlers who you think have a shot at entering the team then please let me know.
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