The gaps
After a fascinating Ashes campaign Australia probably has three spots to fill in the XI - an opener, a middle-order batsman, and a third seamer. There has been some speculation about Warner's place but the public backing of Paine and Langer probably shows that his spot is secure.
Openers
David Warner - made a brilliant 125 on a tough Gabba surface in round 1 of the Shield, to go with a pair of failures and a 15*. Likely secure, given public support from Paine and Langer (though Trevor Hohns refused to guarantee him anything)
Marcus Harris - as much as many of us would like to wipe the Junction Oval game from the records, the selectors will likely say that a hundred is a hundred, and take into account Harris's 116. He also made a good 69 in more difficult circumstances at the WACA in round 2. He's probably the frontrunner at this stage to partner Warner, despite his atrocious Ashes campaign. His rivals will have to do something eye-catching soon to beat him past the post
Joe Burns - has been decent but unspectacular in the Shield so far, with scores of 13, 52, 39, and 22, though in the opinion of myself and many others he deserves another chance based on his quality Test record alone (4 hundreds and an average of 40.1 from 16 Tests). Will hope for a century in the next round to really announce a challenge that the selectors will take notice of
Usman Khawaja - After speculation that he might find his way back into the Test side at the top of the order, owing to his excellent record there, Khawaja has flopped in the Shield, with three single figure scores and a 24. He needs something extraordinary to come back into immediate calculations
Cameron Bancroft - 30, 0, 10, and 6 not out is not a good string of scores for a player looking to show a return to form after looking lost in the Ashes. Is highly unlikely to play Tests against Pakistan at this stage, and may need to shift his focus to the series against New Zealand
The middle order
Mitchell Marsh's hand injury has left open a spot at 6.
Travis Head - According to Tim Paine, Head wasn't really dropped for the last Ashes Test, just squeezed out to allow for an allrounder in Mitch Marsh. He might be in danger of a proper dropping now though, with a tortured 51(184) on one of the flattest pitches in living memory followed by 0 and 12. Looks seriously out of touch
Will Pucovski - The latest domestic wunderkid had a decent outing at the WACA, making a patient 64 in the first innings, to go with a meaningless ton at the Junction. Owns an impressive first-class average of 45 after 16 matches. With injuries to Marsh and Kurtis Patterson, and Head seemingly badly out of form, he is shaping as one of the main contenders
Kurtis Patterson - Has been sidelined with injury for the first two rounds of the Shield. Will have to make an impressive score next round to put himself back in the frame for a baggy green
Shaun Marsh - The spectre that continues to haunt the fringes of Australia's Test squads, Marsh is arguably the form batsman in the Shield and, crucially, still holds a CA central contract. Another comeback probably isn't as far away as we thought
Marcus Stoinis - The selectors may well invoke the need for an allrounder to pick Stoinis, who admittedly has played very well this season with three consecutive half-centuries and some handy wickets
The third seamer
Mitchell Starc - Some felt that Starc might be in trouble after taking 1/129 in the first round on a bowler-friendly surface. He bounced back strongly with 10/60 at Drummoyne Oval, showcasing his elite strike power. Is in the box seat to cement his place for the summer
James Pattinson - Probably hasn't bowled as well as he'd like since making his Test comeback but has still contributed. Will almost certainly be around the squad
Jhye Richardson - Has been very tidy in the Shield, taking 3 wicket hauls in each of the innings he's bowled. Probably won't play the first Test but is there or thereabouts
Michael Neser - Being a bit of a swing specialist, he probably won't play on the generally very flat surfaces that we produce for Tests (sorry diehard fans). Has dominated at the Gabba, but the pitch that's served up for the Pakistan Tests is unlikely to be anywhere near as helpful for his fast-mediums
Peter Siddle - Probably similar to Neser as a guy who was picked for the Ashes because of his expertise in English conditions. The selectors will likely be after the extra pace offered by Starc or Richardson
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