Breaking Down and Predicting the Future of the English Test Team

On the back of the drawn Ashes, NZ loss and dominant series win in South Africa, there seems to be reason for a bit of optimism, with the emergence of a few young players, specifically ones who are specializing in the Test arena. Looking forward, I would place guess the ECB's priorities as

1. Win Ashes 21/22 in Australia
2. Make test Championship final
3. Have a competitive series in India

Below I have listed all the players that currently would be in the picture for these goals. I started with the current test team and then worked down through players who recently have been capped or have toured. There are obviously players who will emerge in County Cricket over the next few seasons, but predicting that is an exercise on its own (with apologies to Ben Coad)

Batsmen

	Sri Lanka/English Summer Outlook	India 21/Ashes 21 outlook
Dom Sibley	Has been consistent and impressive so far, but his technique looks a bit shaky and open for exposure against a really good side. Potentially needs a great Summer of 6 tests. Would like to see him improve at the rate Burns did	probably tours India but vulnerable to being dropped. Young enough to come back from that
Zack Crawley	Probably the odd man out the opening picture, but could bat at 3 if that position looks open after Sri Lanka.	Will definitely tour India and is young enough to be dropped and come back. With Sibley, Touring Australia with Lions which will serve as an audition for Ashes
Rory Burns	Think he walks back into the Test team unless he completely melts down in the early CC season ala Haseeb Hamed	likely opens through 21 Ashes
Joe Denly	Looks to be dropped for Sri Lanka and fairly to be frank. Big fan of his but results just are not there. Still would like to see him given the summer so long as England are winning	If he doesn't play in Summer '20, unlikely to make either based on age and those ahead of him
Joe Root	Captain	First Choice selection. Wonder if he will make it through these 2 series as captain
Jonny Bairstow	Seemingly getting picked for Sri Lanka. Bad series in Sri Lanka may be the death knell for YJB after 2019 Summer results (only 2 50s)	One more bad series/season in SL or England will probably be the end for the forseeable future. ODI and T20 options could be enticing
Ollie Pope	Has become first pick and won't likely be facing any pressure at/for the 6 position	key player for both

All-Arounders

	Sri Lanka/English Summer Outlook	India 21/Ashes 21 outlook
Jos Buttler	Likely to be dropped and will not get a chance to get back in during the Summer at a minimum	Realistically, unless he is willing to cut back on his schedule, will have to focus on White Ball Career, where he will become the England captain and would be the favorites for 2023 WC.
Moeen Ali	Personally would like nothing more for him to get a recall and shine as he once did. Think he will get this chance, just based on how selection has worked with Ed Smith.	I feel the Jos Buttler path is the best to go down, despite him being my favorite player. Cannot see him being terribly effective in India nor touring down under in 21 based on the past mental issues
Ben Stokes	first choice until he breaks down	may have to cut back on schedule otherwise young and no reason to think he won't be an all-timer
Sam Curran	interesting player who always seems to be in the mix, despite lack of pace and no FC 100's.	Probably only stays in the picture with Smith as selector and Root as captain. Regardless, think he will continue to play about 60% of the tests, as older players phase out and/if England keep winning when he plays. Needs to improve batting no matter what
Ben Foakes	One would think if he gets back for Sri Lanka, he stays in the team for all of 2020, no matter what	May go back and forth with Bairstow on gloves. Main danger to future would be a possible Sam Billings uprising.

Bowlers

	Sri Lanka/English Summer Outlook	India 21/Ashes 21 outlook
Jimmy Anderson	Believe he still has plenty to offer in England, but I feel his best play would be to go out ala Cook on a Summer Series high note	Might want that last opportunity to prove a point in both places, but England might need to take a hard line if injuries don't
Stuart Broad	Since being dropped, I believe he has been one of England's most consistent and best bowlers. Also has been relatively injury free. Should skip SL and then a few tests this Summer	Has a lot of mileage on the wheels so should be cared for but taken to Australia in '21. I think he still has the fire, skill and pace to play Test cricket, albeit not 100% of tests between now and 21/22 Ashes
Chris Woakes	Believe he will be the odd man out at home, especially under Anderson and Broad (and Curran (!)). Did impress in 1 SA test. I feel should play in some home tests and has been unlucky quite often on selection	Not sure he has much to offer in either of these series, based on last 2 times he toured these countries.
Jofra Archer	First Choice until further notice	Big chances to become a global superstar in both of these Series
Mark Wood	Should sit out SL and then if healthy, should play only Pakistan or WI series. Overwork + white ball games will break him down. Durham have 6 games before the first Summer test. Would think he needs to play in at least 2 of them.	Only play in India if absolutely required. Essential to any chance in Ashes. Alternatively, may risk too much overall to try to stay in the test picture. Might be better suited taking the T20/White Ball option.
Jack Leach	Should be picked for Sri Lanka but has had a lot of bad luck with injuries and illness. I feel a risky pick with these factors and probably hasn't banged down the door to permanently usurp Moeen	Will de facto tour India but needs to be effective to continue test career (possibly unfair but reality).
Dom Bess	Could take #1 spinner role if he performs in SL	Probably tours India off the strength of only SA. Hard to see him being more effective than past similar bowlers. Could really push case with good Lions tour

On the Fringes

	Sri Lanka/English Summer Outlook	India 21/Ashes 21 outlook
Matt Parkinson	the Test window has in all likelihood temporarily closed	A good Championship season would probably get him on the plane to India. A good performance there would probably get him to Australia
Saqib Mahmood	seems odd man out at this stage but still young	I would imagine he plays in the first Ashes test if not before then
Keaton Jennings/James Vince/Dawid Malan	I group these 3 together because I believe they are all in a bat-off this CC season for effectively the same position; any top 6 batting hole that may arise this Summer.	If Jennings goes to SL, then he may tour India as well. Otherwise unlikely that we see any of these 3 again in a Test shirt. Big fan of all 3 though
Jason Roy	no realistic chance of getting back in Test side. Should focus on white ball dominance	probably seen his last test cap after his performance and the performances of others in the same position. Only shot would be multiple blazing white ball series + Ollie Pope moving to 3 + no one better being available at 6
Ben Duckett	N/A	average of 27 with only one 100 and two 50s in 2019 wont get him back in the picture. Seems to have a stain of the Perth incident as well. Age on his side
Tom Banton	N/A	Very young and career could progress in a lot of different directions. Would wager that he tours Australia if Ed Smith is still the selector, even if uncapped
Mason Crane	N/A	probably a victim of an eccentric Ed Smith selection. Might have ruined his test career but young enough to return. Not even on the Lions FC tour, which is a bad sign
Tom Curran	N/A	has emerged primarily as a standout white ball bowler and may try to replace some of the 2019 WC winning bowlers to force his way into the consistent ODI picture. Do not see a test future with his pace and skills
Toby Roland-Jones	I believe he deserves another chance in the test team, if he can stay healthy	Probably limited to English tests and behind Chris Woakes at that
Craig Overton	only going to play with injuries	Young and showed some resolve in last Ashes but pace isn't there and only seems to get mentioned as a replacement or fill-in
Jamie Porter	might be in the Summer squad but unlikely to play unless Anderson and Broad both are absent	Probably should have a test cap already but young and probably in the mix with TRJ and Woakes
Olly Stone	could spell Wood this summer with his pace if healthy.	Odds-on the Mark Wood/Australia replacement. If he does get a few opportunities and shines; with Archer and Wood as a trio, could be devastating down under
Lewis Gregory	the player off all these that I know the least about, but throw him in the medium-fast seamers bucket	youth would be biggest benefit to tour Australia.

and last but not least, some names to throw out there, half-jokingly: Gary Ballance, Steven Finn, Adil Rashid, Simon Harmer, Liam Dawson

This is by no means authoritative, but I hope to spark some longer term discussion and predictions. My guiding principal for predictions, based on the last 12 months, is that England to be successful in Tests, need to pick Test players. The Bayliss era had ups and downs, but the Silverwood era looks to be off to a good start, not just from results, but the way they are now winning matches. It will be interesting as well to see if the chasm grows further between white and red ball with the Hundred starting in 2020 AND the 2020 T20 World Cup.

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