Wednesday, June 3, 2020

New on SI: Fantasy Football: Expect Positive TD Regression for Alvin Kamara in a Contract Year

If Saints RB Alvin Kamara stays healthy in 2020, SI Fantasy Insider Corey Parson says he could be the top running back in fantasy.

When the 2019 fantasy football season came to an end, New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara finished as the RB8 PPR formats.

While averaging just under 18 fantasy points per game, fantasy owners who owned Alvin Kamara last season didn't seem too thrilled, despite the final numbers looking good.

Saints Insider Kyle T. Mosley recently wrote about the underlying concerns for the Saints talented ball-carrier:

"A question of durability has been an underlying concern for Kamara. When the Saints allowed Mark Ingram to leave for the Ravens in 2018, there were some rumblings about Kamara’s size and physique and if he can take the pounding."

Kamara played in 14 games last season as he struggled with lower leg injuries. He remains a current top 5 pick according to early ADP results, yet if you look at his yards-per-attempt it stayed elite at 4.7 per attempt. Additionally, Kamara caught 81 passes and ended up with over 1300 yards of total offense.

Here’s the real reason why Kamara owners were disappointed in his 2019 campaign: Touchdowns. He only scored six times in 2019 after finishing with 18 the season before.

If Kamara finishes with positive touchdown regression this season, he has the skills and the offense around him to perhaps finish the season as the top back in fantasy. There’s also no real threat to take away carries from Kamara at running back. New Orleans brought in Ty Montgomery for depth, and Latavius Murray is the only other running back to compete for carries. Murray stepped up last season; catching 34 passes while rushing for 637 yards and six touchdowns to overtake Kamara’s five. But a 30-year-old Murray won’t be an issue for Kamara, especially in a contract season. 

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