- When teams won batting first, they won by the difference needed for KKR to cross RCB's run rate 15 out of 28 times (Although most of those were in the first half of the tournament)
- When teams won bowling first, they won by the difference needed for KKR to cross RCB run rate 8 out of 26 times (And again, most of those were in the second half of the tournament)
- So overall, 23/54 games were decided by a margin greater than the necessary margin that KKR need
- If the probability of RCB losing to Delhi is 0.5 and the probability that SRH beat Mumbai is 0.5, then the probability of RCB getting knocked out will be (23/54)*0.5*0.5, so the probability of qualifying overall comes to 89.4%
- If RCB bat first, probability of qualifying is 92.4% and if they bowl first, it will be 86.7% (although of course, they'll want to chase because of the dew factor)
Now all that is left is to see them defy the odds, do the improbable and get knocked out.
P.S: Delhi's probability will be similar - slightly lesser because there were three games that were decided by the margin needed for KKR to cross Delhi's run rate but not by Bangalore's run rate
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