Sunday, January 5, 2020

The Golden Oldies

With Jimmy's continued longevity, I figured it was worth investigating just how exceptional the standards he has set in his older years actually are. To this end, we will investigate the following points:

  • Who has the best average in their later years.
  • Who maintained the best wicket taking ability.
  • Who had the best of these qualities combined.
  • Who has remained fit and available through this time.
  • Who has managed the highest overall workload over this time.

The terms used here have been based on a number of comments about Jimmy Anderson's exceptional development into his later years. Notably, a lot of talk has gone around about Anderson's performances since turning 32, so we'll use that as our cutoff. To this end, we'll consider all pace bowlers, since the end of WWI (as there was a massive change in statistics), with at least 100 Test wickets after turning 32.

When considering total workload, we'll also consider how much bowling, in terms of overs, they have done across all formats.

Below is a table of these players by key performance metrics. Note, here rating is the geometric mean of wickets per match (WPM) / bowling average. The purpose of this is to show players in terms of both their contribution to wicket taking, their workload per match, as well as just keeping a low number of runs per wicket taken.

Player Match Wickets Ave WPM Econ SR Rating
Sir RJ Hadlee (NZ) 46 252 19.87 5.478 2.51 47.44 0.5251
AV Bedser (ENG) 27 143 19.42 5.296 2.12 55.01 0.5222
MG Johnson (AUS) 22 108 23.61 4.909 3.28 43.18 0.4560
GD McGrath (AUS) 43 186 20.91 4.326 2.39 52.48 0.4548
CA Walsh (WI) 67 297 23.11 4.433 2.45 56.66 0.4380
CEL Ambrose (WI) 39 147 20.46 3.769 2.19 56.01 0.4293
JM Anderson (ENG) 54 211 21.25 3.907 2.48 51.40 0.4288
RGD Willis (ENG) 33 127 24.78 3.848 2.91 51.07 0.3941
Imran Khan (PAK) 37 130 22.63 3.514 2.56 53.13 0.3940
CS Martin (NZ) 39 132 33.26 3.385 3.27 61.02 0.3190
EJ Chatfield (NZ) 38 115 30.14 3.026 2.25 80.50 0.3169

The key performer worth noting there is Hadlee, a player who is in many respects vastly underrated. Comparing his later performances to those of Imran Khan is telling. Whilst Imran (a player I personally rate as the best allrounder ever, just for the record) took on less bowling duties later in his career, Hadlee remained at the forefront of everything for the Kiwis, and put on some truly incredible numbers, taking on a high workload with it.

This, of course, brings us onto workload. For this we'll need data on the number of Tests that their nations play to determine the fraction of matches they're actually playing, as well as their total number of overs bowled across top level cricket, ie First Class, List A and T20. This will tell us about the overall workload that they're taking on, and should say a lot about the management of those players. This will be limited to the range of their 32nd birthday until the end of their last test match. This is because our focus is on their workload during this stage of their test career.

Player Years Mat Fraction FC LA T20 Total Overs/Year
Sir RJ Hadlee (NZ) 7.0 46 88% 31040 7666 0 38706 919
AV Bedser (ENG) 5.0 27 57% 37878 0 0 37878 1257
CA Walsh (WI) 6.5 67 97% 28538 6550 0 35088 902
Imran Khan (PAK) 7.3 37 69% 15894 8039 0 23933 550
EJ Chatfield (NZ) 6.7 38 83% 19450 2758 0 22208 556
CS Martin (NZ) 6.1 39 83% 16200 2373 1144 19717 541
CEL Ambrose (WI) 5.0 39 89% 12918 5768 0 18686 628
RGD Willis (ENG) 3.1 33 89% 12186 4879 0 17065 909
JM Anderson (ENG) 5.4 54 77% 15168 1435 42 16645 510
GD McGrath (AUS) 4.9 43 69% 11020 4631 48 15699 534
MG Johnson (AUS) 2.0 22 96% 5297 1066 532 6895 563

I have ordered this by total balls, but there are a number of key metrics to see here. The first is fraction of matches, which Walsh is more impressive in. Johnson also looks impressive, but only did this over a period of 2 years. Others like Ambrose and Hadlee are also very impressive here. Imran Khan, much as before, shows his decline here with less matches overall.

Then we can consider their overall workload. Here the standouts are Hadlee, Bedser and Walsh again. Here Imran does do better however, largely due to playing the most LA cricket out those listed. The likes of Johnson, McGrath and Anderson appear towards the bottom here. Johnson because he only played for 2 years after his 32nd birthday, McGrath because he just didn't bowl a lot outside tests.

We also have overs per year, and here Willis, Walsh, Hadlee and particularly Bedser were quite impressive. At the other end we have Anderson and McGrath, with Anderson at the bottom.

From this we can conclude that as Hadlee appear at the top or near the top across all metrics, that he was the most impressive bowler after turning 32. In particular, he maintained not just a high average, but a high WPM, while taking on a massive workload. Bedser is also impressive in this regard, particularly in terms of scale of the workload. He indeed kept playing some about 5 years after retiring from Tests too.

As to Anderson, he has improved impressively through his later years, but has also shelved a lot of the workload to maintain himself. This is very much to our gain though, as we now get to witness such a test specialist, particularly at home. His bowling has been a joy to watch. This all said, claiming that he has done so in a way that is beyond comparison is hard to justify given the gulf in workload over this years.

McGrath is also worth noting, as it never occurred to me just how much cricket he missed late his in his career. I knew that Australia managed his fitness through those last years, and credit must go to them for that given the numbers we see. Much the same argument goes for Anderson too, and the English medical teams deserve some praise there too. I just hope Anderson sees more years, and with the right management, on current form, that is possible.

Doing this analysis has also given me a new appreciation for Hadlee. I've always known he was an extremely impressive player, but his form particularly late in his career was mighty impressive. It's a point for a different time, but his overall numbers are impressive enough to have him as a real shout for an all time XI, particularly with his all round qualities. To do with, particularly when you carried your nation for so many years, is mighty impressive.

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